During the 2020 presidential election, Ballotpedia reported that 66.8 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. Two years later, there was a 20-percentage-point decline when only 46.8 percent of eligible voters participated in the country’s midterm elections. While these elections traditionally see lower voter turnout, Bryant’s Assistant Professor of Political Science Tristan Hightower, Ph.D., emphasizes that midterm elections determine who makes many of the decisions Americans encounter in their everyday lives.
“If we start at the national level, every two years we are re-electing over half of Congress; that's a massive part of our federal system of government,” he says.
Hightower, who teaches Bryant’s “The U.S. Congress” and “Campaigns, Elections, and Voting in the U.S.” courses, notes that, on November 3, all 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 United States Senate seats will be up for grabs. These are the legislators who are writing our laws and carrying out policy related to economics, social issues, taxes, tariffs, and more.
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He adds that, at the state and local levels, it’s common to see a governor or mayoral race as well as contests for town or city councilors.
“Those elections are important because these are the people deciding things like road repair and snow removal, trash pickup, electricity prices, and regulatory policies,” Hightower says.
Below, Hightower explains the decrease in midterm election voter turnout, what pollsters are predicting for November 3, and how individuals can locate reliable candidate information:
Why fewer voters turn out for midterms
Salience — the quality of being noticeable or important — is a key driver for midterm elections’ low voter turnout, explains Hightower. The civic event doesn’t seem as significant for people because they don't have the same degree of visibility as a presidential race.
Campaign spending also contributes to that disparity in attention.
“We are in an era where people are spending billions on campaigns for presidential races, so you are getting bombarded every four years with presidential candidates, and these big issues that are portrayed to be zero-sum, which motivates people to get out and vote,” Hightower says.
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He adds that if someone is living locally and things are going well, they may not think they need to go out and vote for a mayor or town councilor.
“When you see the president, that's something that affects not only your community but the whole country, so there's a different feeling of what's at stake,” Hightower says.
How the 2026 midterms could play out
Nationally, Hightower notes that the incumbent party (the party that the president is a part of) typically loses Congressional seats during the midterm election. This occurs because the president may have introduced policies that people are not fans of or people who already did not support the president are more mobilized to come out and vote.
“That doesn't mean the incumbent party necessarily loses the majority, but if the majority is small, that becomes a likelihood,” Hightower says.
He notes that the current Republican House of Representatives majority is slim, and prediction markets are expecting a Democratic flip. If a flip happens, that puts the country in a state of divided government where one party does not control the House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, and presidency.
“There will have to be more negotiation and bipartisan policymaking to get things passed into law,” Hightower says.
Polls show the Senate remaining in Republican control, but the majority could be very slim — potentially by one seat.
At the state level, Maine’s race between U.S. Senator Susan Collins and her opponent Troy Jackson will likely draw attention. Hightower notes that Collins has historically outperformed expectations despite opponents sometimes faring better in prediction markets.
“Maine is one to watch as a feeling thermometer for what the country is doing,” Hightower says, adding that there are similar races throughout the nation that have a similar context to Collins’ situation.
Where to find trustworthy candidate info
To learn more about the candidates you’ll be voting for, Hightower suggests starting with local newspapers that cover state-level and town/city races. These publications adhere to journalistic standards, and the journalists reporting this news are researching information on candidates and using reputable sources like Ballotpedia to review donor information.
Watching local news is also important to see what candidates are saying and who they're talking to. Candidates within the community typically knock on doors to talk with constituents, host meet-and-greets, and are present at town halls where people can get to know their candidates.
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For individuals wanting to read about national races, Hightower suggests going to larger news outlets but cautions to first consult a media bias chart, such as AllSides, to see how different outlets rank based on their impartiality in reporting. Voters can also use search engines or chatbots to search for information, but Hightower says this can be a double-edged sword. While people have access to more information than ever, that doesn't mean it's all reliable information.
“Individuals should be cautious about social media. For instance, Instagram recently introduced community notes to fact-check information, but those are not necessarily trustworthy,” Hightower says.
Does a single vote matter?
174 million United States residents were registered to vote in the 2024 presidential election, according to the United States Census Bureau. With so many people able to cast their ballot, Hightower shares that one of the common questions people ask is: ‘Does my vote matter?’
“Sometimes, if you're in a party that's losing by 10,000 votes in a state-level election, it's not particularly close, but that's when we aggregate up. There are local elections where the deciding vote count is less than 200, less than 100 votes,” says Hightower, whose “Campaigns, Elections, and Voting in the U.S.” students have been exploring the science and practice of voter mobilization and have developed a range of initiatives to encourage electoral participation across Bryant’s campus.
He notes that voting can make a difference, even if you don't see it immediately. Regardless of outcome, Hightower adds, voter participation means citizens are engaging, they're learning, they're in their community, and they're promoting that behavior among their neighbors and friends.
“We want eligible voters to vote, and we want them to know why they're voting. The more people who do that, the better it becomes nationwide,” Hightower says.