According to Bryant’s Kirsten Hokeness, Ph.D., the bird flu’s transmission pattern should tell us exactly how concerned we should be about the current outbreak. Transmission from animal-to-animal happens all the time and, while health officials are seeing that the highly contagious virus is capable of animal-to-human transmission, there’s a third level of spreading that — if reached — could make for another pandemic.
“The last one is human-to-human transmission, which we’re hoping not to see,” says Hokeness, the director of Bryant’s School of Health and Behavioral Sciences, whose expertise lies in immunology and virology.
The most recent bird flu outbreak first appeared in 2022 and has since reached six continents. The virus arrived in the United States in 2024 and has led to the deaths of millions of poultry, thousands of wild birds, and hundreds of dairy cows. To date, bird flu has claimed the life of one American and has infected just shy of 70 individuals, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While public health risk to humans remains low, health officials are closely tracking the evolving situation.
“The problem with birds is that they fly and can transport the disease, which is why it's spreading pretty quickly,” Hokeness says. “Right now, the virus is high in animals; the more humans interact with these animals, the more shots the virus has to figure out how to infect the cells, mutate, and spread to the next person.”
Understanding bird flu
Bird flu, also known as avian flu, is a category of influenza that is capable of infecting bird cells; the current version making the rounds is formally known as H5N1. Hokeness explains that the H and N are surface proteins; the number accompanying each letter refers to a specific version of that protein (there are 16 known Hs and nine known Ns).
“These surface proteins assist the virus in getting into the host, infecting host cells, making copies, getting out of the host cell, and spreading. The H is what unlocks the host cell (think of this as a lock and key) and the N allows the virus to leave the cell and spread,” Hokeness says, noting that the H is currently not very good at unlocking cells — limiting its reach.
While bird flu has largely impacted birds, humans are still susceptible. In people, mild bird flu symptoms could include a low-grade fever, coughing, sneezing, stuffy nose, and conjunctivitis. Moderate symptoms could be associated with a higher fever for a longer period of time. Severe symptoms could entail the development of pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome, or even death.
Why human flu rates matter
In addition to bird flu’s circulation, Hokeness notes that flu season is in full swing. Human influenza is at an all-time high, and flu vaccination rates are considerably low. While the CDC aims for a 70 percent flu vaccination rate, that number is hovering around 44 percent.
Hokeness says H1N1 and H3N2 are versions of the flu that are currently circulating. Because the bird flu and human flu are of the same strain, Hokeness says, if someone were to get double infected, the two viruses could converge — giving bird flu the ability to spread person-to-person.
“The viruses would select the best pieces of each other — it’s survival of the fittest, and the virus wants to survive,” Hokeness says.
Bird flu’s economic impact
The likelihood of humans contracting the virus remains low, but wallets are already feeling the impact of bird flu. Because whole poultry flocks have been wiped out due to the disease, the United States is experiencing an egg shortage resulting in increased costs. Hokeness says it'll take some time to recover.
“You have to replenish the flocks, so it’s probably going to be at least a year before we see poultry farms back up,” Hokeness says, noting that, for some farmers, the economic burden could force businesses to close.
Dairy cows have also been infected, but she adds that the economic impact will be smaller than the large-scale egg crisis.
“If you have a cow infection on a farm, it's going to be relatively localized, so milk and beef costs are less likely to go up,” Hokeness says.
