If the ongoing tariff conflict is causing you whiplash, you’re not alone. The constant changes are difficult to keep up with and making short-term and long-term predictions seem nearly impossible.
“What will the next announcement be? We don't know,” says Bryant University Professor of Economic Analytics and Visualization Ramesh Mohan, Ph.D., who teaches within the College of Arts and Sciences.
Mohan explains that there are four types of tariffs within trade policy. The first is called ad valorem tariffs, which refer to import taxes based on the value of goods and can be done by percentage. The second is called specific tariffs, which is when there’s a fixed monetary amount on a product. The third, compound tariffs, are a combination of the previous two tariffs, and the fourth, tariff-rate quota, allows a certain amount of goods to be imported at a lower rate — though any more imports above that number would be subjected to a higher tariff rate.
Noting that the uncertainty will affect some groups of people more than others, Mohan shares that consumers, small businesses, and farmers will feel the greatest impact.
The everyday shopper
Tariffs are a double-edged sword. While they offer protection to domestic industries and encourage local production, someone must assume the added cost — either the importer or consumer.
According to survey data from the New York Federal Reserve that was released last week, 77 percent of service firms and 75 percent of manufacturers that saw increased costs due to higher U.S. tariffs passed part of that cost onto clients. Furthermore, companies such as Walmart, Target, and Best Buy are amongst big-box stores who’ve recently started to announce raised prices to offset tariff costs.
Affected goods could include clothing, furniture, and electronics. Additionally, canned goods, vehicles, and major appliances are likely to go up in price following a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum that went into effect on June 4.
“The consumer is going to lose big time,” Mohan says.
The small business owner
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, there are 33.2 million small businesses in the U.S., which employ nearly half of the country’s workforce and account for 43.5 percent of the U.S.’s Gross Domestic Product.
Tariffs have the potential to stall small business hiring and growth while also challenging entrepreneurs to find innovative ways to remain competitive as prices go up. To mitigate tariff exposure and impact, some business owners have chosen to stock up on several months' worth of inventory; however, as companies now begin to run out of product, they are faced with increased prices — whether it be from producing abroad and shipping to the U.S. or experiencing supply chain disruptions that are causing them to source goods elsewhere.
“Uncertainty is going to kill a lot of businesses, especially small businesses,” Mohan says. “That will have an adverse impact on any planning an organization does because they cannot really plan their future if they buy from overseas.”
Additionally, many small- and medium-businesses export their products with data from the U.S. Census Bureau reporting that, from 2022 to 2023, these enterprises accounted for $588 billion in export value. With other countries implementing retaliatory tariffs, U.S. entrepreneurs could see impacts in purchases abroad.
The American farmer
According to Newsweek, tariffs on steel and aluminum have driven increased farm equipment costs, while trade restrictions have made things like fertilizer more expensive. The news outlet also reported that export costs to China for corn, pork, and soybean are rising for American farmers.
“Our farmers are going to suffer,” Mohan says.
He notes that China, which purchases a significant number of soybeans from the U.S., has been diversifying its trading partners and is now buying soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and other countries. With 1.9 million farms making up the United States, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that American farmers exported $12.84 billion worth of soybeans to China in 2024. Forbes reported that USDA’s report from April of this year showed that soybean sales are 25 percent below the four-week average, with analysists pointing to the China and U.S. trade war as a main driver.
While subsidies for farmers were made available through the government in 2019 amidst a similar tariff situation with China, it is unclear if that relief will be available this time around.
Looking, and moving, forward
While the tariff debacle remains in flux, there are opportunities for consumers and entrepreneurs to think creatively.
Shoppers can focus more on selective spending and increase their focus on budget management. Additionally, Mohan shares that companies can reevaluate product designs to avoid tariffs on certain materials while also allowing the company to locate tariff-friendly options or diversify their suppliers to reduce their dependency on high-tariff regions.
Paying attention to inflation rates can also provide individuals with more insights into the economy. Most recently, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 11 reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in May, which was lower than analysts had expected.
“It’s surprising to see that the increase was so low and will be interesting to watch moving forward,” Mohan says.
