Every five years, countries who’ve committed themselves to the United Nations’ Paris Agreement submit new emissions-cutting plans seeking to tackle climate change. With February 10 marking the latest five-year deadline, a Carbon Brief analysis reported that just 10 of the treaty’s 195 countries submitted their 2035 climate pledges on time.
“The Paris Agreement is a voluntary international treaty adopted by the Conference of Parties at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, France,” says Biological and Biomedical Sciences Lecturer Robert Patalano, Ph.D. “Its overarching goal is to cut greenhouse gas emissions to limit global temperatures from rising more than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Ideally, we want to keep temperatures as close to 1.5 as possible.”
Carbon Brief also noted that the countries who have missed the deadline represent 83 percent of global emissions and nearly 80 percent of the world’s economy. Other countries are planning on submitting their pledges by September of this year.
The United States originally joined the Paris Agreement in 2016; however, it pulled out a year later and rejoined in 2021. When United States President Donald Trump took office on January 20, he signed an executive order withdrawing America from the Paris Agreement. The removal will take effect one year after notification, meaning that the U.S. will remain part of the treaty until January 27, 2026.
To help people understand what the Paris Agreement does and how it works, Patalano unpacks the treaty — highlighting its successes, downfalls, and its inspiration for new climate-related opportunities.
It all comes down to accountability
When countries commit to the Paris Agreement, Patalano explains that they have consented to reducing their fossil fuel use (think: coal, oil, natural gas), which will help limit the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions that get trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere and raise surface temperatures by preventing excess heat energy from escaping back into space.
Countries also agree to find ways to mitigate climate change impacts through infrastructure development, new food systems, and agricultural products that can withstand droughts or excessive rain. Lastly, they will use funding to assist other countries impacted by climate change.
While the treaty is legally binding in terms of how to measure, report, and verify emissions reductions commitments, Patalano notes that there is no way to hold countries accountable when they do not meet the goals put forth in their five-year pledges.
“There's no penalty and there's nothing that you can do to enforce that they meet their commitment,” Patalano says, adding that it's always relied on the honor system.
2024 was not only the hottest year on record but found CO2 emissions to be at their highest levels. While the world was expected to hit 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2035, Patalano says we’ll likely hit that within the next year or two. If we don’t make any substantial changes, the world is on a trajectory to see an increase of three degrees Celsius by 2100.
“When you get to 1.5 degrees Celsius or beyond, the impacts of climate change become so severe that the damage will be a lot worse. Anticipated effects could include rapid sea level rise, loss of agriculture, loss of wildlife, and extreme weather events that leave behind billions or trillions of dollars in damages,” Patalano says, noting that these predictions are laid out in decades of research conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.
Weighing outcomes and opportunities
Accountability and enforcement may be out of whack, but Patalano notes that there have been some positive outcomes of the Paris Agreement.
“There’s been a big push toward renewables, and the treaty is getting people aware of the looming threat of the continued warming of our planet,” Patalano says. “Although there's no enforcement of the policies, having governments and industries talk about setting a plan to reduce their overall emissions is great since it gets people actively trying to commit to these things.”
It also keeps people thinking of new ways to combat climate change. A recent idea included a global fund where countries would pay into it to help mitigate the damage of climate change, specifically for developing countries that don't have the infrastructure or the money to withstand the impacts of climate change or rebuild after an extreme weather event.
“This funding would also be beneficial to update infrastructure to be energy efficient and renewable, specifically for a lot of these developing countries, so they don't go through long term fossil fuel use. But again, you have to look at who will drive and enforce the initiative,” he says.
